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October 17, 2024

Lionel Messi Has Missed Half the MLS Season. Should He Be MVP?

Can Inter Miami’s star player win the league’s top individual honor despite being sidelined for much of the season? The answer hinges on how one defines “valuable.”

It will come as no surprise to anyone—except perhaps newborns and aliens—that Lionel Messi’s performances in MLS this season have been nothing short of extraordinary. He has been instrumental for Inter Miami, helping them rise to the standings with a dazzling array of goals and assists, consistently living up to the immense expectations placed on him.

What is more surprising is that if Messi’s stellar run culminates in winning the MLS Most Valuable Player (MVP) award, it would be an unprecedented achievement in North American men’s sports and nearly unheard of in the top domestic leagues in Europe—aside from one notable exception.

Messi ranks fifth in the MLS goal scoring chart with 17 goals and sixth in assists with 11, totaling 28 goal contributions, which places him third in the league. While these numbers are impressive, they don’t immediately scream MVP material, especially considering Messi’s astronomical standards.

However, it’s essential to factor in that he has reached these numbers in just 18 appearances. This limited total is mainly due to a lengthy absence caused by an ankle injury sustained during the Copa América, which kept him out for months. If he plays in the regular-season finale on Saturday, his total appearances will finish at 19. While he may still add to his goal and assist tally in that last match before the playoffs, it’s unlikely he will end the season as the league leader in these categories.

On a per-90-minute basis, Messi is leading the league in goals, assists, and total contributions. According to FBref, he is also outperforming the expected versions of these statistics, meaning he consistently finishes difficult chances at a high rate and delivers assists to his teammates in challenging situations.

These “per game” numbers shine even in the context of Messi’s illustrious career. The only two domestic league seasons in which he recorded more goal contributions per 90 minutes than in 2024 were during his peak at Barcelona: the 2011-12 season, where he achieved 66 goal contributions in 37 games for an average of 1.94 per 90 minutes, and the following season, with 57 contributions averaging 1.82 per 90. Messi is averaging 1.73 goal contributions per game this season with Inter Miami.

Just as with his time at Barcelona and PSG, Messi has significantly impacted Inter Miami. A few weeks ago, Miami clinched the Supporters’ Shield for the best regular-season record in the league. A victory in Saturday’s finale would allow Miami to set a new MLS record for points in a single season.

However, several other strong candidates exist for the 2024 MLS MVP award. Cucho Hernández has been the driving force for the Columbus Cre. At the same time, Luciano Acosta has shone for an FC Cincinnati team that has undergone significant changes since last year. Christian Benteke is a frontrunner for the Golden Boot, which automatically places him in the MVP conversation. LAFC’s Denis Bouanga has been a formidable presence both on the dribble and in front of goal. Messi’s teammate, Luis Suárez, has also played a crucial role in Miami’s success with his current team-leading goal tally.

This raises an important question: Can a player be considered the most “valuable” in the league if his team performs nearly as well without him as they do with him, as is the case with Messi and Miami? Wouldn’t Benteke’s 23 goals, which account for an astonishing 44% of DC United’s total, be considered more valuable? (This is the highest percentage in the league, with Bouanga coming in second at 32% of LAFC’s goals.) And where would FC Cincinnati be without Acosta orchestrating their offense at No. 10, or the Crew without Cucho’s timely goals?

In North America, MVP awards traditionally focus on a player’s overall contribution over an entire season rather than just per-game statistics. If Messi finishes with 19 appearances in 2024, he will have participated in only 55% of Inter Miami’s matches. Winning the MVP under such circumstances would set a record for the lowest percentage of games played by an MVP in the history of North American men’s major leagues.

There is significant historical precedent for players missing out on MVP awards due to limited playing time. For instance, Joel Embiid has lost out on one, possibly two, NBA MVPs in recent seasons, partly because other candidates, such as Nikola Jokić, played more games. The NBA now mandates that MVP candidates must appear in at least 65 games, roughly 79% of the season, making it challenging for players who miss significant time to secure the award.

In 2017, Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz seemed destined for the MVP title until a torn ACL sidelined him after just 13 games. He ended the regular season with more passing touchdowns than Tom Brady, who ultimately won the award. Like Messi, Wentz’s absence didn’t derail the Eagles’ season; they later took home the Super Bowl victory against Brady and the Patriots with backup quarterback Nick Foles.

In baseball, Mike Trout in 2017 and Hanley Ramirez in 2013 had outstanding seasons hampered by injuries. Despite being statistically competitive with the eventual winners, they were not serious MVP contenders.

The standards in Europe’s top five soccer leagues are similar, although they have only recently begun to issue MVP or MVP-like awards. Historically, “player of the season” honors were typically bestowed by writers’ associations or specific magazines. However, among the newer league-issued awards, Messi’s participation level in 2024 still falls short in all but one instance.

This scenario may be the most relevant when considering Messi’s case for the Landon Donovan Award 2024. During the 2017-18 season, Neymar had a stellar debut at PSG, amassing 19 goals and 13 assists in just 20 games. Unfortunately, he suffered a fractured metatarsal shortly after the new year, sidelining him for the remainder of the season.

Like Messi this year, Neymar led the league in per-game performance before his injury. PSG continued to thrive in his absence, comfortably winning Ligue 1. Strikingly, like Messi, Neymar had a Uruguayan strike partner (Edinson Cavani) who ended up as the team’s top scorer.

The pivotal question is: by what standard will Messi be evaluated? Will it be the typical criteria used within the league and country he competes in, or will it be a more lenient standard that has previously allowed exceptions in similar situations?

Ultimately, the answer may remain consistent: Messi sets his own benchmark, and the usual standards may not apply to him.

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