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August 1, 2024

EFL Championship Betting Tips: Historical Insights for Promotion, Including a 13/2 Underdog – EFL CHAMPIONSHIP

The Championship is widely regarded as one of the most competitive leagues in the world—unless, of course, you’re part of it. Over nine grueling months and 46 demanding matches, teams of relatively equal caliber—especially compared to the polarized Premier League—are pushed to their limits. This league tests not only skill but also endurance.

The competition is often intense. Nine teams were still vying for play-off positions with just ten fixtures left in the previous season. Only ten points separated 12th place from 23rd. Thus, as we look forward to another marathon season decided by razor-thin margins, it’s crucial to analyze key factors. Which teams have had a productive transfer window? Which managers have a proven track record of securing promotion? How did the promotion hopefuls perform in the latter half of the 2023/24 season?

History also plays a significant role, particularly in a league as distinctive as the Championship. Analyzing the last 25 seasons reveals intriguing patterns and trends that could inform our predictions for the upcoming campaign.

Sunderland Poised to Close the Top-Six Gap

With all three relegated teams from last season making a significant impact in the promotion race—finishing first, third, and fourth—concerns about parachute payments resurfaced. Teams dropping into the Championship bring top-tier infrastructure and enjoy a financial edge. However, looking back to the early 2000s, the trend of “yo-yo-ing” between leagues has declined, although there is often one club that bounces back quickly after relegation.

Conversely, many teams struggle to regain their footing, as evidenced by the 75 sides relegated since 2000, averaging a league position of eighth in the below tier. Yet, for those Championship clubs that have thrived, it’s tempting to believe that teams previously close to promotion should be favorites. Solid evidence supports this notion: of the 53 established second-tier teams promoted in the last 25 years, 21 finished their previous campaign in sixth place or higher.

Nevertheless, there are numerous exceptions to this rule. For example, last May, Ipswich became the fourth club since 2000 to achieve back-to-back promotions. In 2017, Huddersfield made a remarkable leap from near relegation to play-off winners, and clubs like Derby, Hull, and Watford also accomplished similar feats in the mid-to-late 2000s. Mid-table teams have frequently climbed to the top tier a year later.

Sunderland is expected to follow this trend. Despite an underwhelming performance last season, the Mackems have many talented young players who could flourish under new manager Regis Le Bris.

Can Burnley Lead the Relegated Trio?

As noted, it’s essential to acknowledge the real possibility of a relegated team bouncing back quickly. In fact, relegated sides have topped the Championship table each May for the last four seasons. This trend goes back even further—40% of Championship champions over the past 25 years were in the Premier League the previous season.

Burnley is one of those clubs, shaking off the disappointment of relegation to dominate the second tier in 2022/23. Can the Clarets replicate that success? They are the favorites among the relegated teams, retaining a core group of players who thrived at this level just two years ago. Additionally, they have Scott Parker at the helm, a manager with two promotions on his résumé with different teams.

However, questions about a team’s ability to accumulate 90+ points under new management may arise. But as we will see, this is not necessarily a barrier to success.

Norwich Looks to New-Boy Johannes

This exciting phenomenon is hard to explain, but ignoring it would be a mistake. Between the 1999/00 and 2016/17 seasons—18 seasons—18.5% of promoted teams had new managers, either arriving in the summer or joining as late as January. This figure is pretty typical; it makes sense that it takes time for a new coach to implement their ideas and build a squad they trust. Less than one in five promoted teams gel from the start, which is manageable.

However, in recent years, that percentage has skyrocketed. In the last seven seasons, newly appointed coaches have managed 52.3% of promoted teams. Norwich is already on many radars, boasting a talented squad enhanced by experienced players and game-changers like Gabriel Sara. Some argue that David Wagner didn’t fully capitalize on the potential at Carrow Road.

Could things improve under Johannes Hoff Thorup, whose innovative approach holds great promise?

Leeds United: The Play-Off Losers

In 2006, Leeds United lost a play-off final to Watford and subsequently finished at the bottom of the Championship the following season. While no one is suggesting that a similar fate awaits them after their narrow loss in last May’s final at Wembley, the Yorkshire giants are in solid shape under Daniel Farke and have Crysencio Summerville, previous year’s Championship Player of the Season. Their points total in 2023/24 would have likely secured automatic promotion in most seasons.

Nevertheless, the long-held belief that play-off losers suffer a hangover in their subsequent campaign has merit. Over the past 25 years, only three play-off final losers have finished in the top three the following season, with the average league position post-defeat being ninth. It often takes time for the disappointment to fade; only four play-off losers have won their opening match in the following season in the last decade.

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