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June 23, 2024
With less than three weeks until the Championship kicks off on Friday, August 9th, Leeds United, fresh from their playoff final defeat, are currently the Betfair Sportsbook’s 100/30 favorites to win the league, having attracted 40% of the bets. The season will begin with Preston hosting Sheffield United and Blackburn facing Derby at 8 PM on opening night, setting the stage for what promises to be another thrilling Championship campaign.
Known for its unpredictable nature, the second tier is often regarded as one of the most exciting leagues in the world, and this upcoming season appears to be no exception. The three teams relegated from the Premier League—Burnley, Luton, and Sheffield United—were all promoted from the Championship in the 2022-23 season, marking the first time since 1997-98 that all newly promoted clubs suffered relegation in their first season back in the top flight.
Additionally, several prominent clubs are making their return to the Championship from League One. Derby County is back after a two-year absence, while Portsmouth, the 2008 FA Cup winners, returns to the second tier for the first time since the 2011-12 season. Oxford United also made its comeback after 25 years, having secured promotion by defeating Bolton in the playoff final.
Leeds United will consider anything less than promotion a disappointment. Meanwhile, fans can expect improved performances from West Brom, Middlesbrough, Hull, and Coventry as we gear up for another thrilling Championship season.
Daniel Farke’s squad set a record last season by accumulating 90 points and a goal difference of +38 in the second tier without securing promotion, narrowly missing out on automatic qualification to Ipswich and Leicester. They dominated Norwich in the playoff semi-finals but suffered a disappointing 1-0 defeat to Southampton in the Wembley final. This means Leeds is the only relegated club yet to achieve promotion back to the Premier League on their first attempt.
The team has now experienced six unsuccessful playoff campaigns in the Football League, with only Sheffield United (nine) and Lincoln City (seven) having participated in more without success. Despite this heartbreak, Leeds’ overall performance indicates they are poised to contend for promotion again this season, a sentiment echoed by bettors at the Betfair Sportsbook.
Over 40% of all bets placed in the Championship Title Winner market have been for Leeds United, nearly three times more than any other team, with Burnley receiving 16%. The last team to earn automatic promotion after losing in the playoff final was Middlesbrough in the 2015-16 season, who finished second. The most recent team to win the Championship the following year after a playoff final defeat was Reading in the 2011-12 season, who lost 4-2 to Swansea in the final but bounced back to claim the title with 89 points the following year. Interestingly, Leeds finished third last season with 90 points, surpassing Reading’s championship-winning total.
With two of the three relegated teams from the 2022-23 season bouncing back immediately last year, expectations are high for Burnley, Sheffield United, and Luton. According to the Betfair Sportsbook, Scott Parker’s Burnley is favored to win the league among the relegated clubs, with odds of 7/1. However, they face a transition after Vincent Kompany’s departure to Bayern Munich, with Parker stepping in to lead the Clarets. Having previously secured promotion to the Premier League, Parker brings valuable experience.
Burnley has also attracted the second-highest percentage of bets, receiving 16% of the overall wagers, positioning them as Leeds’ closest challengers. With odds of 10/1, Luton Town ranks as the third favorite for the title, just ahead of Sheffield United at 12/1, with Middlesbrough nestled in between at 11/1. Retaining manager Rob Edwards could be one of Luton’s most significant moves this summer, making their double-digit odds worth considering.
Sheffield United, however, faces off-field turmoil, with their ownership issues casting a shadow over their prospects. They have garnered over 6% of the overall bets to win the league, the lowest among the relegated teams. Despite noteworthy signings like Kieffer Moore and Callum O’Hare, their financial struggles may hinder their ability to move further in the transfer market.
Starting the season at the bottom with -2 points adds to their challenges, and a tricky opening fixture list could leave them scrambling from the outset. You can back the Blades at odds of 11.0 on the Betfair Exchange to be relegated.
The significance of Michael Carrick remaining in charge at Teesside cannot be overstated. Having fallen only four points short of the playoffs last season, the team’s poor early-season form was crucial in their disappointing campaign. With Carrick frequently linked to potential moves elsewhere following his initial solid impact when he took over, this speculation may have contributed to the team’s rocky start.
Carrick’s Middlesbrough is priced at 11/1 this season to win the league. It is the fourth favorite at 7/2 for promotion in the 2024-25 season, making them the most favored team from last season’s Championship, aside from Leeds. Both Norwich and West Brom are tied at 12/1, followed by Coventry at 14/1, and six teams at 16/1. Meanwhile, Wayne Rooney’s Plymouth Argyle and newly promoted Oxford United are the joint outsiders for the title at 50/1. At the time of writing, Preston stands at 33/1 and has yet to attract any bets in this market, according to Betfair.
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