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April 12, 2024

What Holds Back Brazil’s Soccer League from Achieving Its Full Potential? – Brazilian Serie A

Credits to Brazilian Serie A Image Gallery

The Brazilian Serie A is set to begin this weekend, signaling the countdown for Palmeiras fans as they prepare to say goodbye to 17-year-old prodigy Endrick. Recently celebrated as the standout performer on Brazil’s European tour, he netted unforgettable goals at Wembley and the Bernabéu—where he will soon don the Real Madrid jersey. Endrick was instrumental in helping Palmeiras clinch last year’s championship, but he will be across the Atlantic well before this season wraps up in early December.

His exit could open the door for his teammate Estêvão, who will celebrate his 17th birthday later this month and is already attracting considerable interest. Alternatively, this might be the perfect chance for 18-year-old Luis Guilherme, a more seasoned player, to rise to the occasion and fill the gap. Meanwhile, Atletico Mineiro is hopeful about their teenage talent, Alisson Santana, while Grêmio is eager to see 19-year-old Nathan Fernandes finally convert his potential into on-field success this season.

One thing is clear: if these talented young players make a significant impact, they will likely follow in Endrick’s footsteps to Europe. This reflects the current realities of the market—something that might surprise anyone revisiting the 2014 edition of Simon Kuper and Stefan Szymanski’s insightful book Soccernomics.

A decade ago, during the flurry of investments leading up to the World Cup, the authors expressed strong optimism that “post-2014, Brazil could have a perfect league.” They later acknowledged that their “rosy prediction” was not entirely on point. However, they were not wholly mistaken either.

“Once the comfort level rises in the shiny new stadium,” they wrote, “more middle class Brazilians and their families should start coming to league matches.” This has certainly happened. Last year’s average crowds of almost 27,000 were the highest ever.

Other comments could have been more accurate. “Already,” they wrote, “Brazilian clubs can afford to keep more of their better players at home.” This was not true then and has become less accurate since, with Real Madrid’s signing of Vinícius Júnior something of a landmark. As much as ever before, Brazilian football is an exporter of its brightest promises, and now they leave as early as possible.

Fueled by increasing revenues from sponsorships, broadcast rights, and ticket sales, it is also true that major Brazilian clubs can now bring back South American veterans from Europe or sign younger players who have struggled to thrive abroad. Furthermore, they can strategically recruit talent from other areas of the continent. However, the outcomes of the Club World Cup—an event of significant importance for Brazilian teams—highlight that the technical and financial divide between European clubs remains considerable.

The predictions from “Soccernomics” have yet to materialize, as their analysis of Brazil overly relies on data such as market size while underestimating the influence of factors like politics, culture, and organizational structure. These elements are crucial and hinder Brazilian football from achieving its enormous potential. The calendar is a clear example of this issue, which is particularly evident this year. 

The season runs from Saturday until early December, but in the midst of this, the Copa América occurs, an official FIFA window during which clubs must release their players. As a result, around 30 players are expected to join their national teams in June and July, potentially missing up to nine matches of the Brazilian league.

This group features prominent players such as Endrick, Flamengo’s Uruguayan playmaker Giorgian De Arrascaeta, Palmeiras captain Gustavo Gómez from Paraguay, Colombia’s James Rodríguez at São Paulo, and Ecuadorian center-back Félix Torres, who recently joined Corinthians. These athletes are critical figures in the league.

Could one imagine the Premier League permitting its top stars to miss around a quarter of the season? 

The comparison to the Premier League is pertinent, as there is a growing consensus that Brazilian clubs should manage their league like England’s model. There was even a brief effort in 1987, five years before the Premier League was formed, but it quickly disintegrated, leading to a return to the previous structure. Since then, state federations have remained the leading authority in organizing the calendar, rather than the clubs themselves.

These federations—Brazil consists of 27 states—have one main goal: to maintain their state championships, which start in late January and run until the last weekend of the year. In their current form, these tournaments have long lost their significance. They limit many smaller clubs to just three months of play while cramming larger clubs’ schedules, undermining one of the critical aspects of a successful league campaign: the necessary break that builds excitement before the season kicks off.

One persistent puzzle in Brazilian football is why major clubs have yet to break away from a structure that does not serve their interests. That moment may eventually arrive, but not just yet. 

There have been attempts to create a league managed by the clubs, yet the calendar issue still needs to be addressed. This is likely because São Paulo is the wealthiest state, with a depth of talent that makes its state competition superior to others. As a result, clubs from São Paulo are hesitant to relinquish what they see as a competitive advantage.

Regardless of the reasons, a significant overhaul of the calendar is not on the table, nor are other factors that could greatly enhance the championship’s appeal, such as improving pitch quality. For now, the focus remains predictably on the distribution of television revenue. Brazilian clubs have divided into rival factions, each competing to secure the most lucrative TV contracts. In the meantime, operations continue as usual.

This strategy has merits—the league rightfully carries the informal title of “Brasileirão,” or the Great Brazilian Championship. It is indeed monumental, as a country the size of a continent can support numerous clubs with large fanbases. However, the outcomes are less unpredictable than many fans might hope. With growing financial disparities, trophies have increasingly been dominated by a select few teams—most notably Palmeiras and Flamengo, along with Atlético Mineiro making significant strides.

These three clubs have captured the last six titles, and by the final round of last year’s season, they were the only teams still vying for the championship. Endrick played a crucial role in leading Palmeiras to victory in 2023. This year, it will be another player’s chance to contribute to a title that is not only prestigious but may also carry even greater significance.

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